To mark Women’s History Month during March, I thought I’d share with you the fascinating story of Dr Lilian Violet Cooper, whom the Cooper electorate is named after. A Greens win here isn’t out of the question, but it’s still a long shot. They only voted them federally because they didn’t like Bill Shorten and Labor federally. I do not think they believe they are a certainty, they are taking it seriously. In fact I’m getting increasingly convinced they’ll take it anyway. Agreed – smart move by Labor to select Jonty Bush – she ran a good campaign in the Enoggera ward in the BCC elections and got a swing of nearly 4%. This is largely because Kate is seen as a local. She seems like a good candidate but she doesn’t have all that much momentum here yet. Home. However i think that the general popularity of the ALP government over COVID will swing many LNP voters to the ALP so Jonti will be well ahead. Jonty Bush to replace outgoing Labor minister Kate Jones in Cooper at Queensland state election By Anna Hartley. Maybe? So clearly you just “want” the LNP to win rather than predicting it, i am not saying it is impossible for the LNP to win. They have distributed their booklet to many places. They would have better luck trying to nab marginal LNP seats in SEQ like Pumicestone than trying to hold on to Mundingburra. Kate Jones won Ashgrove in 2006. In hindsight perhaps if Kate had stayed on the LNP would have been behind the Greens and delivered them the win on preferences! I hate LNP and despise ON. Expecting the 4th highest Green primary here, but not be their 4th win (if any). So while I think it probable that Jonty will win, i would probably rate the Green chances as closer to 20% than 10%. Not in the regions. i was talking to some people earlier this week saying, just you wait, more will resign after Coralee and now that’s 2 more. Greens will win in a bad election for Labor and/or if Kate Jones doesn’t recontest (due to moving seat or retiring). This is now a genuine 3 cornered contest and I think the Greens will take it. After winning a second term in 2009 she was appointed as Minister for the Environment, Resource Management and Climate Change. I live on the border of Maiwar and Cooper and work in Cooper. And that’s a big maybe). I am inclined to think At end of election ALP will be left with only Mackay and Cairns North of Rocky. (BUT it is a small booth so maybe they usual mob are at the main prepoll. In this way the retirement of Kate Jones is actually a double dipping for the Greens, loss of incumbency advantage could see both red/blue swing voters shifting to blue and red/green swing voters shifting to green. A 7% swing Labor to Greens leaves this seat with 3PP numbers very similar to how McConnel turned out last time. Just ask Peter Beattie in 2004, that was held around the same time in 2004 when John Howard swept QLD while Beattie had a reduced landslide. ). This is one of them and didn’t expect it to be a real target. After threading the needle in Maiwar in 2017 to win from a very low primary vote the Greens have no luck in 2020, missing out in Cooper and neighbouring McConnel merely due to disadvantageous vote shifting between ALP and LNP. Ben Raue-October 31, 2020. I get a lot of sponsored ads for Jonty Bush, and I live a good 80 km away from Cooper. The electorate is trending that way, it’s close enough to Berkman’s sphere of influence, and the Greens really can win here which will get some bandwagoning going. On second thought I don’t see the LNP winning this with any plausible swing (they might still win government). Jonty Bush was also a Labor candidate for the ward of Enoggera at this years Brisbane City Council elections. If a seat like Cairns goes back to the LNP (not impossible), or Rockhampton falls to ONP, then we are in messy, messy territory. The primary purpose of this document is to help polling officials to issue the correct House of Representatives ballot paper to electors casting declaration votes (i.e. Newman had served as Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, and resigned in April 2011 after being elected as leader of the LNP despite not holding a seat in the state Parliament. Why does The Gap vote Labor? In 1983, Greenwood lost his seat to the ALP’s Tom Veivers. The Greens have taken Maiwar as well as South Brisbane and are looking strong in Cooper, with the minor party on track to have its best night ever in the state's electoral history. In Maiwar the Greens got 28.9% 3PP and won the seat (they could have leaked 0.42% back to Labor and still won), in McConnel they got 28.3% but were short (the needed 2.9% from Labor to overtake them). 2017 State General Election - Cooper District Summary -Results Summary by District: 2017 State General Election - Cooper Booth Details: District Profile : Electors at Close of Roll: 36,850 Last Updated Date/Time: 06/12/2017 ... ©2015 Electoral Commission Queensland Dunno what will happen to this seat. That said, unfortunately we were unable to convince enough of Cooper to join our agenda however thanks to your support we did achieve 789 votes amounting to 2.74%. Geography North-Western Brisbane. If you need to register to vote i.e. I suspect their polling is showing Jonty Bush with the lead but their ground game’s absolutely in full swing now. In Cooper in 2017 the LNP 3PP was 36.8%, a ~7% swing from ALP to LNP would help them (but obviously no more than that lest the LNP win the seat). Cooper covers the Brisbane suburbs of The Gap, Ashgrove, Milton, Paddington, Red Hill … One Nation in Burdekin last time did something similar: 29% for third place. All demographic indicators would seem to suggest a strong LNP-voting suburb. CTRL + SPACE for auto-complete. I’m not suggesting that the odds are the make or brake in terms of results in seats. I hope I am wrong but it sure does not look like it. Write CSS OR LESS and hit save. Ignore the secret internal polls, the demographic changes, Trad’s corruption scandals and no longer having the profile of a Deputy Premier means she is toast in South Brisbane. I find it laughable that some people think that Labor will, never win in QLD again. I see no mood for change. Newman became premier of Queensland following the 2012 election, serving until the 2015 election. Bennee what I was imagining was LNP (who are really not looking good in greater Brisbane) finishing 3rd in Greenslopes or Miller and Greens winning on preferences. Even conservative commentators like Alan Jones don’t predict such ridiculous outcome. Labor’s primary in Cooper could drop a long way now. Election participants. This can be fairly obviously seen by comparing Maiwar and McConnel 2017 results. Unless we bring back the Joh-mander the LNP won’t win unless they gain suburb and city voters again. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/queensland-tourism-minister-kate-jones-to-announce-retirement/12649658. So that suggests Cooper is about 5% better for the ALP than the statewide 2PP – and that’s with Kate Jones as much out of the picture as possible. Profile of the electoral division of Cooper (Vic) Named in honour of William Cooper, 1861–1941. But still, they won last time didnt they? North-Western Brisbane. absent, provisional, pre poll and postal votes). Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.9% in the centre to 63.9% in the east. I fully agree with your assessment. Unless your seeing something i am not. I think Labor will hold it but the margin will be whittled right back. Don’t think it will be a different result but how it gets there will change. The following suburbs fall within the new electorate of Cooper : Ashgrove, Bardon, Enoggera, Paddington, Milton, Red Hill & The Gap. Even with Katies retirement. If that is the case the the Greens are winning with their signage twice that of both labor and LNP. I assume the ads date back to when Kate Jones was still running but the Greens might not be giving this seat the attention it needs to be winnable for them. Zoom out a bit and consider that Labor’s electoral coalition in Queensland looks increasingly shaky, the regions’ demographics continue to favor the conservatives while the Greens eat into their inner-city electorate, and yet Labor’s electoral strategy increasingly hinges on dominating Brisbane even as their traditional heartlands and regional strongholds give way. Election results in Cooper at the 2017 QLD state election Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes. Pro-coal locals show their opposition to last year’s anti-Adani convoy as it arrives in Clermont. QLD does not like the LNP, unless you have facts to prove me wrong on that. Twitter; Facebook; Youtube; Instagram; Privacy; Members web site; Your safety; Contact Us They will get swings to them here or even standstill and maybe go backwards in a few seats where members are retiring, but nowehere near enough to change he seats hands. Also even in Enogerra the ALP primary barely increased. The AEC acknowledges the Traditional Owners of country throughout Australia and recognises their continuing connection to land, waters, culture and community. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. How those preference flows break is hard to say. You have entered an incorrect email address! Nobody wants change during a pandemic. (To an extent, the 2017 Greens primary also shows the split between the old Ashgrove and Mt Coot-tha seats). I’m not sure what to make of all this, and it seems the campaign in these seats will be more crucial and ALP’s hold on majority government has become more tenuous. But it isn’t fiction, it’s just you aren’t educated enough about the issue. * SOURCE: Australian Electoral Commission www.aec.gov.au. John in a 3 corner contest like Cooper, Greenslopes, and Miller it is more advantageous for the Greens chances for the LNP vote to be higher provided of course the LNP 3PP vote stays below ~44% so that whoever of the Greens or ALP finish 2nd are guaranteed to win on preferences. He had previously won the seat of Kelvin Grove for the Liberal Party in 1957. In Maiwar I posted about 7 seats being 20% or above for green first pref. *At time of comment 66.5% counted showing an incredible ALP 34.1, LNP 32.7, GRN 30.6, OTH 2.6. You will get some LNP to ALP swing over Covid but I think the ALP base “progressive” vote will collapse. About Edmund Kennedy (5 September 1818 – 23 December 1848) In 1848 the Assistant Surveyor of NSW Edmund Kennedy led an expedition to explore Cape York Peninsula. Electoral boundaries. Unless you are predicting an LNP landslide. They started campaigning about a month ago, with the departure of Kate Jones being a wake-up call to actually put in some amount of effort”, They seem to be spending a bit on Facebook ads though. QLD 2020 – election night live. What is more surprising is that the Liberals are NOT working very hard – not as a hard as in the Council of federal elections anyway. Queensland Greens Branches Branches are the real engine-room of the Greens, and the entry-point for members to all other structures. Cooper is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Queensland. But Cooper itself is now by far the best prospect for a fourth seat for the Greens. However it doesn’t seem to have much overlap with Cooper. There are three seats north of the Pine River that Labor hold on margins of less than 2% – Townsville, Mundingburra and Barron River. I like it how some of you old folks deny climate change. Yes, thats who I thought would be lined up – I was expecting Mark Furner to retire though and she would run in Ferny Grove, it overlaps more with Enoggera ward. At various times, Cooper was Chairman of the National Party's Wallumbilla/Yuleba branch and Vice-President of the National Party's Roma Electorate Council. Australian scientific polling is pretty weak compared to the United Sates and some of us, myself definitely included, often place far too much confidence in the handful of polls that exist. It was created in the 2017 redistribution, and was won at that year's state election by Labor's Kate Jones. Cooper will be no different than any other city seat. Cooper covers the Brisbane suburbs of The Gap, Ashgrove, Milton, Paddington, Red Hill and parts of Bardon and Kelvin Grove. Why would the LNP win when they are divided, associated with Palmer who is hated nationwide for his border demands and they don’t even have a state treasurer just under 2 months out from an election. Also while Kate Jones had a big following in the Gap and to a lesser extent Ashgrove, many areas of the electorate were knew to her in 2017, especially the areas with very high Green votes in 2017 eg Paddington, Rainworth and Kelvin Grove. SA and TAS in 2018 and 2014 respectively were exceptions, but what did those 2 have in common? Fouras had previously held South Brisbane for one term from 1983 to 1986. Dr Cooper, who emigrated from England to Brisbane in 1891, was the first woman doctor registered in Queensland, and within months, the first woman doctor in Brisbane to have her own surgery. Greens have a high chance and so do LNP. Where is my electorate? Prediction: ALP Retain (but with the possibility of a reduced margin), Anyone who thinks Labour have a chance here are really kidding themselves. Whilst the Greens may pull some primary votes off Labour, due to the ‘Kate Jones retirement’, Jonty has worked hard and the prediction is that Cooper will be a Labour retain. Kate Jones has just announced her retirement, I predict an LNP win here now. © The State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) 2015. A woman with the same name and headshot appeared on the ballot for the seat of Moreton in southeast Queensland in the 2019 federal election, securing just 2.2 per cent of the vote. Disclosure of political donations and electoral expenditure Both processes get the Greens closer to overtaking Labor. The Greens’ incumbent Sam Hibbins having 32.0% at the same point in the count. This election, I expect to see the east go even greener thanks to their Paddington ward campaign (and 2024 similarly), but they need at least another 10% on 3PP across the centre and west to viable. Kate Jones, Member for Ashgrove since 2015. Interestingly too I have not seen the usual LNP team out and about. @NQ view Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra and Barron River will be extremely hard for the ALP to hold on to. If we take those seats off ALP – they have 42 seats (not factoring in any losses in SEQ). Works. It is won down here. The LNP will not win the election, and i asked before why you thought so. WOODRIDGE ALP – Cameron Dick (Incumbent MP) And in 2004 the LNP got around the same TPP as 2019 Federally (although it wasnt the LNP back then) And the Greens eating Labors ground doesn’t affect much since the Greens would never ever help the coalition into power. One thing I HAVE noticed is that the usual anti ALP types HAVE taken the greens HTV with more enthusiasm so some now carry just the blue and green. All three parties have a strong presence now in Cooper. 12/09/2020. That is not how the 2 party system. They are where new members first meet other Greens, talk politics and policy, get involved in local campaigning and fundraising, and find out about what else is going on. This is very new, since I rarely have seen that happen before. Seats do. The campaign volunteers are here in swarms and they are saying they have a chance. Queensland is currently divided into 93 state electorates. However the liberal vote is quite strong. In their advertising the Greens seem to have zeroed in on Maiwar, McConnel and South Brisbane. It is very rare for a Federal governments party to gain state government from the opposition. A Green victory would likely involve further unpredictable factors from here, like Labor tripling down on subsidising coal mining in the coming days, the sudden reveal of ministerial scandal on election eve, and/or a higher LNP primary vote in Cooper than one might think (that makes the 3PP maths easier for the Greens). Registered political parties; Candidates; Third parties/ Donors; Associated entities; Broadcasters/ Publishers; Offences and penalties; Local government election participants; Handbooks, fact sheets and forms; Donation and expenditure disclosure. Because in Maiwar 43.0% of votes were captured in the LNP pile at the crucial exclusion whereas in McConnel it was only 37.6%. I think that’s less likely in Cooper, where Greens would want to push Labor into 3rd to win. Newman lost the seat of Ashgrove to his predecessor Kate Jones in 2015, while his party also lost power. So if visibility matters it is a green seat. This margin is heavily inflated for Kate’s personal vote. no answer. It is within the council of Brisbane. I think that Jonti will have a hard time replacing Kate in The Gap, which was Kate’s strongest area. The seat was renamed Cooper in 2017. Prediction: LAB HOLD 57-43 TPP. Right now they’ve got a majority of 1. The state electorate of Cooper has an approximate area of 63 km². You can add Thuringowa and potentially Keppel and Maryborough to the list of vunerable ALP seats in the regions. Sherlock again only held the seat for one term, losing in 1989 to Labor candidate Jim Fouras. For an article about it. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-12/labor-jonty-bush-replace-kate-jones-cooper-queensland-election/12658006. Complacency is seriously plauging Labour in this electorate, and I look forward to seeing this be punished this coming saturday. I doubt the Greens are doing internal polling, but it likely represents a lack of enthusiasm for this seat and it’s probably off the boil in terms of doorknocking and other campaign activity (though booths are likely fully staffed). Who can say. If this is the case, please contact the AEC to confirm which federal electorate you live in. Daniel, I respectfully disagree with your point that “it is won down here”. Opportunities for First Nations Artists; First Nations' Roundtables; National Indigenous Arts Awards; News and Events. Map drawn by Spatial Vision COOPER Cooper – QLD 2020. Fouras was elected as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly in 1990, and held the position until 1996. In the previous year he had discovered the Thomson River and established the Barcoo River was part of Cooper's Creek. Division Finders. Based on the results at the last two elections – Local and federal the greens and labor are neck and neck and Liberal preferences could tip the greens over the line. Despite electorate changes, your local member remains the person elected on the electorates in place at the previous federal election or subsequent by-election. | Electoral Commission of Queensland. Almost all the Greens messaging has pivoted to talking about “3 winnable seats”. She lived in the Gap, where here mother lived until very recently and as a student she worked in the then very popular “Family Market” where she got to greet hundreds of people at the checkout. Does anyone know of any similar cases? Previously Member for Ashgrove 2006-2012. My observation is Greens doing VERY well and may well overtake Labor and or the LNP – even BOTH. Veivers held the seat for one term, losing to Liberal candidate Alan Sherlock in 1986. It was reported in the Courier Mail Jonty Bush victim rights advocate and 2009 Young Australian of the Year will be picked to run for Labor in Cooper. And Maverick is right, the Cooper campaign definitely isn’t sleeping on the job, in fact from what I’ve seen they’re easily the most active of the ‘second-tier’ Greens campaigns. The Greens do very well here with their Senate vote but less well with House, State or Local. Seems to be a changing of the guard. Completely opened up and genuinely don’t know what will happen in this seat. Prediction: GRN Gain. Let me just say that any idea the greens are ignoring this seat is fanciful. The Gap was the focus of the Keep Kate campaign which was largely non party political. Booths in Cooper have been divided into three areas: central, east and west. Why would a state government be voted out amidst a global pandemic? If just two of those three seats – and no others – switch from ALP to LNP, we are in hung parliament territory, with the ALP dropping to 46 of 93 seats. As expected: “Jonty Bush to replace outgoing Labor minister Kate Jones in Cooper at Queensland state election”. Cooper is an electoral district of the Legislative Assembly in the Australian state of Queensland. Could be one to watch. Rob and I would like to thank all 789 voters for believing in our mission, your vote were not in vein and Rob and I have discussed a more complete campaign when the opportunity arises (more than four weeks would be nice for a start! And for the 10th time, and other members will tell you that federal election results do not affect state elections. This would be the 4th or 5th Greens seat in the future. My guess is that if there are significant enough differences between LNP voters in, say, Cooper and McConnel, then the Cooper Liberals are probably slightly more conservative and slightly more likely to buck the HTV card. Answer these 3 questions. Jonty is a strong candidate, but the LNP are out in force. 2020 isn’t shaping up to be either of those scenarios and Greens will have a hard time overtaking a major, though I expect them to do well here on primaries. It’s not wishful thinking. Electorate results below reflect electorates that will be in place at the next federal election. Jones was re-elected as member for Cooper in 2017. Why the difference in the Green vote required to win? Well obviously signage does not translate into votes, but I assume they do reflect enthusiasm. Watch the replay of the Barron River debate between Linda Cooper LNP and Craig Crawford ALP as they go head-to-head ahead of 2020 QLD election. State government election participants. It would require a strong effort from the LNP to win here. [1], Electoral results for the district of Cooper, Results of the 2020 Queensland state election § Cooper, Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, Category:Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly, "Determination of Queensland's Legislative Assembly Electoral Districts", 2020 State General Election – Cooper – District Summary, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Electoral_district_of_Cooper&oldid=1003682767, All Wikipedia articles written in Australian English, Australian Electorate articles using near parameters, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, This page was last edited on 30 January 2021, at 04:47. Labor went backwards in both The Gap and Paddington (the latter by a lot) which seen to be more relevant. Labor seem to have Kate Jones successor lined up for Cooper. The Greens could eventually threaten Labor here but that likely won’t be this election. It is comprised of the suburbs of Enoggera Reservoir, Milton, Red Hill and The Gap plus parts of Ashgrove, Bardon, Kelvin Grove, Newmarket and Paddington. Electorate of Cooper & Voter Info. Cooper was a Yorta Yorta man who as a spokesman for Aboriginal people called for direct representation in parliament, enfranchisement, land rights and federal control of … Boundary of Electoral District COOPER Electoral Act 1992 2017 QUEENSLAND STATE ELECTORAL DISTRICT OF N 0 km 1 2 km © Electoral Commission Queensland 2017. And why would Queenslanders especially in the south-east corner vote for a party that has consistently denied the science behind climate change? I had said I expected the loss of Kate Jones incumbency advantage would drive red-blue swing voters back to blue which would have seen the seat go Green. Younger voters will, vote Labor, i see no signs of my generation voting for the LNP (BTW this is my first state election i can vote in) And last time I checked the polls don’t decide elections, voters do and the TPP doesn’t determine it. It was named after pioneer doctor Lilian Violet Cooper. Think that’s a smart choice for ALP and gives them a strong chance to retain. Depends who ALP now chooses and how they campaign. Kate Jones in particular seems to have a big personal vote and I think this seat isn’t going anywhere until she retires. Previously Member for Ashgrove 2006-2012. “Anyone who thinks Labour have a chance here are really kidding themselves. Nightwatchman the odds were $12 for the Greens in Cooper yesterday so there is some money moving. Incumbent MP Kate Jones, Member for Ashgrove since 2015. I’m guessing a Coalition victory based on them leading the state poll, dominating the federal poll in Queensland, the sudden exodus of union support and high profile ALP members mere weeks from the election and the barrage of bad press Palaszczuk’s been copping, but I am only guessing. And people don’t want change. At the 2012 election, Jones was defeated by her LNP opponent Newman. They are very marginal seats. Located in Northern Brisbane, it consists of the suburbs of Enoggera Reservoir, The Gap, Bardon, Ashgrove, Red Hill, Paddington and Milton. They started campaigning about a month ago, with the departure of Kate Jones being a wake-up call to actually put in some amount of effort.