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One factor driving this: Lawrence should be ready for the step-up in defensive intensity he'll face in the pros. During the week, you can see Cynthia on NFL Fantasy Live and every Sunday on NFL GameDay Morning at 9:00 AM ET. I've found that route-running precision leading to separation in college is correlated to the same things in the NFL. This is not an exact science, as even Football Outsiders would acknowledge. PFF credits Farley with allowing a passer rating in coverage of just 26.8 in 2019 (he opted out in 2020). The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current NFL rosters. Duration: 00:25 59 mins ago. I think the comments here are a bit harsh. Talk about a trajectory uptick -- Newsome's production and results in 2020 shot up the most from 2019 for any corner in the FBS (not just among draft-eligible players). Moehrig led all college safeties in pass break-ups in each of the past two seasons. Ahead of free agency, this forecasts as the draft slot that is most likely to be traded; the Jets have many needs, and they should have no trouble finding a trade partner willing to hand them multiple picks, given that leap-frogging the Dolphins at No. Most mock drafts seem to agree the Bucs will go with an offensive tackle in round one, but Cynthia Frelund’s analytics-based mock draft over at NFL.com says Tampa Bay should go defense. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and each team's 2021 opponents. also, cold cuts work wonders too. Cynthia Frelund is one of the best football analysts NFL is proud to have. Have a look at how they fared. In reply to Re: Cynthia Frelund's All-Analytics Team by Vincent Verhei. She joins the NFL from ESPN, where she was a Predictive Analytics Analyst for two … How much would Cam Newton lift Washington? NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund’s recently-released All-Analytics Team features just one player from Kansas City. This vision carries over into yards after the catch; his ability to increase his speed once he had the ball in his hands was the third-best in the FBS this season. 2: OL Penei Sewell (Oregon) "Ahead of free agency, this forecasts as the draft slot that is most likely to be traded; the Jets have many needs, and they should have no trouble finding a trade partner willing to hand them multiple picks, given that leap-frogging the Dolphins at No. You can read the article for her full list, but most of Frelund's picks match up with ours. I also ask coaches, front office executives and even players to help me understand why results occurred. That said, pairing Paye with new Falcons defensive coordinator Dean Pees (who had great success in the past creating unique and efficient fronts for the Ravens, Pats and Titans) changes Atlanta's ability to pressure pass-happy quarterbacks -- like the ones they'll face in the NFC South -- A.S.A.P., with a lot of upside as the season goes along. This college season was odd (to say the least); the number of games played, when they were played and even situations/contexts faced were quite different from in years past. He also played offense and safety in high school, meaning we haven't likely seen his best pass-rushing stuff yet. beign plump and just layign on bed coudl be a sign. Then, my model "selects" the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team in the coming season. Cynthia Frelund's All-Analytics Team NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund has released her All-Analytics Team, the best players in the league according to her statistics. Cynthia Frelund uses analytics to highlight one underappreciated player on each NFC team from 2019. PFF shows that Horn allowed just eight catches on 24 targets for 116 yards in seven games in 2020. No draft-eligible LB was faster (as measured by game speed) last season. NFL Network's analytics expert Cynthia Frelund used a statistical methodology to divine which free agent GM George Paton and the Broncos should target based on her analytical model. PFF counts Waddle in the top five in yards per route run (3.6) and in yards after the catch per reception (11.5) over the past two seasons. She does not go into great deal into her methodology, but her commentary includes several uses of both play-by-play splits and film-based charting data. 3 amongst wide receivers in terms of route-running efficiency (as measured by reliable timing and the ability to create separation) on routes run from outside alignment in the FBS over the past two seasons. He has formation diversity (both out of the shotgun and under center) as well as strong results with alternate arm angles. Pro Football Focus counts Lawrence as the only QB in this draft class who has faced the blitz over 200 times in the past three seasons. He boasted the third-best burst from snap to 5 yards out from the line of scrimmage in the FBS last season. Route-running precision is a metric my model values likely more than most, and Bateman thrives at it, especially when aligned on the outside. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy, © 2020 EdjSports, LLC // Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties, 2021 Free Agency and Trade Discussion (Latest: Mack/T.Williams to 49ers), Brady Signs Extension; Newton Back to Pats, ESPN: Players Who Have Declined/Improved in 2020, ESPN: Ranking Remaining Schedule Strength, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Frelund uses pressures for D-line, FO uses defeats. These ratings can be compared across years. TWEET. Her ability to blend in professionalism, versatility and vigour in her work makes her stand out. In basic terms, Frelund crunched the numbers for what the teams do best, what the prospects do … I can't help but to note them in certain cases. Fair enough. He’s extremely young, but his improvement from 2018 to 2020 shows the top pass- and run-blocking win-share projection in the class. © 2021 NFL Enterprises LLC. We linked to her article and mentioned our numbers matched up with hers most of the time. I project Vera-Tucker at guard, though he has experience at USC at both that position and tackle. Over the past three seasons, Moore maintained his speed after contact on inside routes at the highest rate of any receiver in the FBS. Wilson fits here based on his ability to connect with receivers on off-platform throws (that is, throws where his feet, hips and shoulder alignment aren't set in the most kinetically efficient manner). I don't love the small sample size (Lance has 17 starts to his name), but there are many indicators of positive upside, including his ability to take care of the ball. Then fate, hard work and a little luck intervened. Cynthia Frelund uses analytics to find ideal fits for key free agents. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. I guess that's just what has to happen when you're writing on NFL.com instead of FO.com. Here are a few spots where our numbers differ though: Given the nature of the media platform Ms. Frelund is on, I have never been a fan of her analysis. Is anyone more versatile than Budda Baker? From a pure speed standpoint, on plays where he was not touched, Oweh had the fastest burst among edge rushers in the FBS last season, as measured by the time it took him to travel 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. Cynthia Frelund is NFL Media’s first analytics expert, and can be seen across a variety of NFL Media shows and platforms. SHARE. Maybe that is why article is apprentlty lady arguing with someone or something. She seems to be arguing to justify her picks, rather than talking about what the numbers said for whom and why. Cynthia (@cfrelund) joins NFL Media from ESPN, where she served as a Predictive Analytics Analyst on SportsCenter for the past two years. Absent Deshaun Watson somehow falling into the Jaguars' laps, Lawrence would do the most of all options available to immediately change the fortunes of a franchise that has finished with an offensive ranking of 27th or worse in six of the past 10 seasons. Which QB is the best fit for the Patriots? (Some might feel Slater is undersized for the tackle position, based on his traditional measurements.) How did each perform on Tuesday? Also could be that dog likes it. With the 14th pick, Frelund has the Vikings drafting USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker. Unless sick, that will make the dog wlak with you. But since we are not allowing trades in this mock, we'll focus on the best choice the Jets could make at No. maybe if tooo lazy to do that, you bring a hamburger with you . Assuming the Bears find a way to keep receiver Allen Robinson on the team, adding a slot presence will help whomever is under center in Chicago. Daniel Jeremiah highlights seven of this year's speediest talents. The tone is also not what I'm used to. Share Followers 0. Which high-profile WRs did D.J. Sewell is the player who would give the Jets the most added wins, even more than any free agent veteran offensive lineman. Finally, another change to this year's mock is a real refinement of how the on-field computer vision weighs on the predictions. He had the lowest percentage of throws that were either picked off, batted down or thrown closer to a defender than the target. Chase opted out of the 2020 season, but in 2019, he was the most open receiver in college football (that is, when viewing the percentage of targets where he had at least 3 yards to work with) on passes intended to travel more than 10 air yards. I examine each season's on-field results, objectively analyzing what happened while identifying the trends and strategies that led to success or failure. Facing an uphill battle to the NFL with a cancelled college season, a D-III resume and a ballooning body, offensive lineman Quinn Meinerz was at a career crossroads. NFL Network analytics analyst Cynthia Frelund discussed her analytics based mock draft, her choice for the Bills and where she has the team's WR group ranked (52:10). stick it on tree branch and hold it out in front of you. Between offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's play design and teaching ability and Fields' ability to run the ball, the QB will have the chance to learn and adapt to NFL speed quickly. In Maurice Jones-Drew's first mock of the 2021 NFL Draft, a trio of running backs come off the draft board in Round 1 -- all to teams in the AFC East. PFF notes that 69.9 percent of Fields' college passing yards came through the air, and my models add that his time to throw took 0.45 seconds less on non-primary reads in his final three college career games than in his first five. Prior to joining ESPN, Cynthia was manager of Business Development for Disney/ABC in Los Angeles, analyst for the NFL's CFO, and senior analyst for Fusion Finance. Rousseau opted out in 2020, but his 2019 data was some of my favorite to track that year; he lined up all over the defensive front and generated pressures from every spot he was used in. He opted out in 2020, but in 2019, his run-stopping ability and ability to quickly move laterally stood out. There are a lot of real-life efficiencies that could be realized via draft-pick trades. She joined the NFL in 2016 and had previously worked for ESPN. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Cynthia appears on NFL GameDay Morning, Thursday Night Pregame, NFL Fantasy Live, as well as NFL Network's coverage of the Super Bowl, NFL Scouting Combine and NFL Draft. She calculated which players will most impact a teams’ win share. She has built an excellent career over the years by breaking down complex data and statistics of players for NFL football fans. Cynthia Frelund recently wrote an article coming up with the based free agency fits based on analytics. "Jealously sniping?" What questions do NFL evaluators have about the top five quarterback prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft? PFF counts only four total pressures allowed on 211 pass-blocking snaps. I'm assuming here that a certain 30-year-old tight end will not be on the Eagles' roster for the 2021 season -- if Zach Ertz sticks in Philly, that will throw this projection off. The main disagreements are about linemen, which even FO admits are difficult to evaluate. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Representatives from 30 NFL teams are in attendance for North Dakota State's pro day, where QB Trey Lance is the top attraction. On run-blocking snaps, Mayfield handled blitzes and athletic moves by defenders at the third-most consistent rate in the Power Five. Ojulari is fast. "I noticed there was a void in being able to connect the dots and creating a strategy that was team specific to create the best product and chances to win, which is defined by a team," said Frelund, who works as a data scientist and predictive … Phillips has an injury red flag, having suffered several before leaving UCLA, but he had an outstanding 2020 season at Miami. Paye flags as someone who will have a greater need for strong coaching than some of the other edge rushers to come out of the Big Ten recently; that is, he didn't have as many consistently productive reps on every down as, say, Chase Young did. I can only wish that one day, major media outlets (i.e., NFLN, ESPN, Fox Sports, etc) will incorporate personalities such as Vincent Verhei, Aaron Schatz, Rivers McCown and/or Warren Sharp into their regular programming. ", source: https://nflcommunications.com/Pages/Analytics-Expert-Cynthia-Frelund-Joins-NFL-Media-Group.aspx, by Mountain Time … // Jun 16, 2019 - 12:24pm. Well, Rousseau possesses pretty much every key upside marker: size, along with an improving ability to stay low in his center of gravity. Versatile linebackers (he also played safety and slot corner) are extremely valuable in today's game. Interesting that a college player who lined up in the slot as much as Toney did lands here, joining a pro in Michael Thomas who crushes from the slot. Based on merit below, I could certainly make the argument too. One note: This projection does assume linebacker C.J. Prior to the NFL Media Group, Cynthia worked in an innovation capacity at ESPN, where she served as a Predictive Analytics Analyst on … If I worked for an individual team, an analysis like this could aid in creating a strategy for identifying potential trade partners, as well as vulnerable spots where other teams are most likely to scoop up particular players -- especially given free agency. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Cynthia Frelund is one of the highly qualified and experienced sports analysts. The Snap (Ep. TWEET. Mosley is returning on defense after opting out of the 2020 season because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Chase Goodbread provides news and notes from both workouts, including a strong performance from NDSU QB Trey Lance. NFL Network Analytics Expert Cynthia Frelund has released her All-Analytics Team, the best players in the league according to her statistics. She works for SportsCenter Predictive Analytics and the NFL. But in spite of that, her analysis is significantly better than almost any of the other talking heads on TV (with a couple of notable exceptions, such as Tony Romo). Paye's average burst when left unattended (measured by the time it takes him to travel 2 yards from the line of scrimmage) was the second-fastest in the NCAA this past season at his position (0.64 seconds). Speaking og self-arguiong, notice ad here of fat beagle layign on bed with caption mentioning 3 signs your dog is crying for help. He's versatile in alignment use, which means Spags can be creative and not have to rely on coverage as much as he did in 2020. SHARE. EMAIL. Will the Wildcats boast a pair of first-rounders come April? maybe writer was arguing with ghost in rooom or opretneding peter Kong or M. Tanier was in room and liked fuifferent guys. Cynthia Frelund's Analytics Based Mock Draft Cynthia Frelund's Analytics Based Mock Draft. Linebacker Micah Parsons and cornerback Caleb Farley would add a lot of value to the Bengals, here, as well, but reinforcing Joe Burrow's protection maps to the most success for Cincinnati in 2021. In Cynthia Frelund’s latest mock draft over at NFL.com, she does it based strictly on analytics that will help teams now. These subjective inputs help shape the results, meaning the model gets "smarter" each season. Duration: 00:25 2 hrs ago. by Vincent Verhei // Jun 19, 2019 - 2:38am, In reply to Re: Cynthia Frelund's All-Analytics Team by MC2. My model shows the Virginia Tech product had the best pursuit speed of any available corner in this draft. Kelce, Watt, Mack, and Wagner all look to me like they belong. How, exactly? Even so, Slater was the third-most effective O-lineman in the Big Ten at stopping or preventing QB pressure in 2019. 3 seems like a smart and necessary strategy for QB-needy teams. His ability to stop the run and pass are the best at the position in the FBS, and his results steadily improved from season's start to finish. Here’s what Frelund wrote about the pick: I project Vera-Tucker at guard, though he has experience at USC at both … EMAIL. Is Frelund perfect? Maybe ptu some black forest ham or head cheese or salami and take that. Here's the part that's extra: I have projections and results for all teams and the draft prospects they selected over the past 15 seasons. Combine him with that nasty Niners front, and new defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans will get off to a great start. Note that FO's disagreement with Kelce is that the Eagle's OL was mediocre. Cynthia Frelund is a smart sports analytics expert who currently deploys her services in NFL Media Group. Why does my model project someone with no 2020 data this high at this position? Frelund is NFL Network's data scientist and has a Master's in predictive analytics. Well, the paring is driven by Toney's YAC and tackle-braking ability. As of 2020, her net worth is $1 million. The percentage of times he was pushed back on passing downs in 2020 compared to 2019 was significantly improved. Clemson RB Travis Etienne and two of Trevor Lawrence's top pass catchers from last season entered the pro day spotlight on Thursday, along with some intriguing Texas talents. I only glanced at the article, but I notice she jumps back and forth between using rate stats and counting stats to justify her picks. Are the Jets and Falcons better off bypassing QB NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. His ability to stay low in his stance through contact helps project him as a very reliable (that is, possessing a high projected floor) in both passing and rushing situations, as well as in play-action, which is extremely helpful for the Vikings' scheme. SHARE. 23): NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund explains analytics-based mock drafts, discusses free agency On this episode of "The Snap," Sydney Jones and Alexis Perry are joined by NFL Network's analytics expert Cynthia Frelund to discuss the impact of the cancellation of the 2021 NFL Combine, her analytics-based mock … 2. Ooh, my model likes Surtain, especially in the NFC East, where currently only the Cowboys pose a big threat to Washington. When it comes to a great fit at right tackle, the Bills and Jenkins at 30 feels almost too good to be true. Boxcar 169 Posted 30 minutes ago. Reply to this topic; Recommended Posts. Northwestern's pro day included two of Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 overall prospects: OT Rashawn Slater and CB Greg Newsome II. Boxcar. In reply to Re: Cynthia Frelund's All-Analytics Team by Mountain Time …. If it still won't wlka, tehn take dog to vet as obviously it is likely diseased. Radunz's results place him in the top 12 percent amongst tackles over the 15-season sample. Maybe it ran around a lot in younger days but decided it didn't liek that anymore. or just oput in bag. His 2019 data was most impressive, and the fact that he can defend slot receivers adds to his upside. SHARE. In his final two collegiate games, he had 12 pressures and eight stops (per PFF), which is even more impressive, considering his opponents were Notre Dame and Ohio State. For Dupree, she wrote the Las Vegas Raiders would be the best place for him to end up. My model says his speed when open (when no defenders are closer than 3 yards) is the fastest in this draft class. Which 2021 NFL Draft prospect will post the fastest 40-yard dash time at one of the pro days being held in the next month? While most mock drafts are either predicated on the best player available or team need, Cynthia Frelund of NFL.com has a different type of mock draft. Should free agent Ndamukong Suh no longer be a Buc (which is my assumption), Onwuzurike could add production immediately. This trait would surely be maximized in Carolina by head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, two of the most progressive offensive architects in the league. I think Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo would be very pleased with this one. So, before you read any further, take note: I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day. These conclusions (relative to the FO analytics) is further prove of that. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Smith is my WR2because his consistent route running and ability to earn separation give him the highest projected floor and ceiling in this class. I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of this article, to create a numerical value for each player. At the defensive tackle position, he ranked fifth in terms of pushing O-linemen back on rushing downs in 2019 in the FBS. Still, for the sake of this particular mock, I did not allow for trades. I have been reading FO for about 15 years now, and they have said quite a few things that seemed silly at the time, and look even worse in hindsight. Yes, Frelund disagrees with FO on a few players, but It's hard to argue entirely against her selections. His burst (to 2 yards past the line of scrimmage) was the fastest in the FBS last season. NFL Network - Cynthia Frelund No. Mike Garafolo explains why NFL teams might be just fine with that decision. Nope. Frelund is reportedly single as of 2020. In the second round of Chad Reuter's first four-round mock of the 2021 NFL Draft, he sees just two running backs selected: Clemson's Travis Etienne and UNC's Javonte Williams. It should still at leats like to walk. Chase Goodbread provides a look at the prospect-team fits identified by Daniel Jeremiah during a media availability on Tuesday. He also has strong blitz and pressure potential, as measured by how often he got past the defensive front when asked to blitz (he was in the top 10 percent among LBs of his type when blitzing). if get time (not liekly( will read for tone analysis. Interestingly, edge rusher Kwity Paye and cornerback Caleb Farley show up here, too, based on need and fit with the coaching strategy new head man Robert Saleh’s history suggests he'll implement. My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2021. PFF counts him as only allowing 12 catches on 34 targets for 93 yards all season. I'm sure the same thing will happen to Frelund. It's necessary to factor in the level of competition, but this is still the kind of result that usually equates to a career of 10-plus years. Hardly definitive. Per PFF, over the past two seasons, no receiver covered by Surtain earned more than 65 yards in a single game. On snaps where Pitts ran routes, he displayed a faster burst (that is, the time it takes him to travel 2 yards from the line of scrimmage) than all but three FBS wide receivers in 2020. Darrisaw's improvement from 2018 to 2019, and then to 2020, was the best amongst tackles in the FBS, which is even more impressive, considering the level of edge-rushing talent he faced. Cynthia Frelund has a message for all her fellow quants (the analytically-inclined): “Numbers people need to not be a-----, so that people genuinely like it. SHARE. Is there a RB who would be perfect for the Steelers? Also a plus: His blitzing burst was the third-best at the position. For much of her career, NFL Network's Cynthia Frelund has provided answers. In Cynthia Frelund's first NFL mock draft of the year, she uses her analytics-driven model to determine each team's best pick to maximize wins in 2021. Instead of jealously sniping at Frelund, FO should celebrate her, as her prominent position on a platform like NFLN augurs well for mainstream acceptance of analytics in the future. So I had to look for factors over longer periods of time (and their trajectories) and normalize all past measurements (like we'd get from the combine) for all 15 seasons using computer vision to make sure every comparison was as apples to apples as possible.